The Fed Is About to Make Its Move.
Are You Ready?
Fed Watch Live with Dale Wheatley
Wednesday, December 9 ยท 1:30โ4:00 PM Eastern
Interest rate decisions can send shockwaves through the financial markets, creating sudden volatility, unexpected reversals, and trading opportunities in both directions. On Wednesday, December 9, 2026, the Federal Reserve announces its latest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, along with a new dot plot, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30. The market's reaction could be just as important as the decision itself.
What the Market Expects From the Fed
Hike odds per fed funds futures after the October 28 press conference. Payrolls per BLS, November 6, 2026.
- A hike is the base case. A quarter point would take the range to 4.00%โ4.25%. The question is what the Fed signals next.
- New projections. December brings the first dot plot since September, and with it the Fed's view of 2027.
- Very little guidance. Warsh won't pre-judge meetings, so the statement, the dots and his tone carry the whole signal.
What the Fed Is Wrestling With
Inflation is still "elevated" in the Fed's own words, and hiring has bounced back: +165,000 in October, with August and September revised up a combined 84,000.
Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack voted to hike in October. Two votes already wanted to move.
No forward guidance outside a crisis. Every statement change and unscripted answer moves the market.
Futures already price a policy rate near 4.7% by next September. The new dots will confirm that path or tear it up.
Three Ways This Could Go
A quarter point plus dots showing more to come in 2027. Yields up, growth names under pressure.
The Fed hikes but signals a pause. The first move down can reverse fast once the message sinks in.
No move when most of the market expects one. Fast, violent repricing in both directions.
The hike is priced in. What the Fed signals after it isn't.
What We'll Cover
Join Dale Wheatley for a special Fed Watch live event. Using his chart patterns and MACD divergence techniques, Dale will help you identify potential opportunities, recognize false moves, and trade the volatility rather than get caught on the wrong side of it.
- What's happening in the markets before the 2:00 PM announcement
- How to read the initial price reaction to the decision, the dot plot and Warsh's 2:30 PM press conference
- What to watch for as the market digests the news
- Spotting opportunities and false moves with chart patterns and MACD divergence
- Live Q&A on your positioning
Frequently Asked Questions
If a hike is priced in, what is there to trade?
What the Fed signals beyond December. The new dot plot and Warsh's tone decide whether this is one more hike or the start of a longer run, and that's where the volatility comes from.
Do I need options experience?
Yes, the basics. This is rule-based positioning on a high-volatility event, not a beginner tutorial.
What if I can't attend live?
The value is in the real-time price action. Replay details, if offered, are confirmed at registration.
What do I need?
Just a device for Zoom. thinkorswim tools are referenced but not required.
Don't just watch the headlines. Learn how to read the charts and prepare for the move.