What Short-Term and Option Traders Expect Ahead of Next Weekā€™s Potential Rate Cut

Uncategorized Sep 10, 2024

As the Federal Reserve gears up for next week's meeting, short-term traders are keenly focused on the potential implications of a quarter- or half-percentage point interest rate cut. With market dynamics closely tied to central bank decisions, anticipating such a move generates intense speculation and shapes trading strategies. Here’s what short-term and option traders are preparing for as the Fed deliberates.

1. Immediate Volatility and Market Reaction

Short-term traders thrive on volatility, and a rate cut, especially one that deviates from expectations, could trigger significant market swings. A quarter-point cut is more likely priced in, with many market participants expecting it. If the Fed goes this route, the market could see a brief rally, but the reaction may be tempered by the fact that it aligns with general forecasts.

On the other hand, a half-point cut would likely shock the market, creating heightened volatility. Such an aggressive move could signal that the Fed...

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Rate cuts signal concerns about economic weakness, which could create volatility

Uncategorized Sep 03, 2024

 

A rate cut at the Federal Reserve's upcoming September meeting appears increasingly likely as the job market softens and inflation returns toward the Fed's 2% target. The unemployment rate has climbed to 4.3%, up from a historic low of 3.5% just a year ago, heightening concerns about a potential recession. In response, economists are now forecasting that the Fed might reduce interest rates at all three of its remaining meetings this year, with cuts ranging from a quarter to half a percentage point. 

A rate cut could have a significant impact on the stock market. Lower interest rates typically make borrowing cheaper, which can stimulate economic activity and boost corporate profits. This, in turn, often leads to higher stock prices as investors anticipate stronger earnings and seek higher returns in equities over lower-yielding bonds. However, the potential for rate cuts also signals concerns about economic weakness, which could create volatility as the...

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If the Shoe Fits NKE Classic Pattern

Uncategorized Aug 15, 2024
 
The Markets have settled down for now but even on quiet days there's huge gains to be made
UVXY settled down to a recent low and the major market ETFS were modestly higher with no discernable patterns. A look through the Dow 30 stocks on lower time frames revealed a similar outcome, however in the daily chart one Dow 30 stock stood out with a classic pattern, NKE.
 
The  Chart below clearly shows a classic V-shaped double bottom and MACD divergence up. It's on a daily chart so options will take a few days to pan out, unlike a 10-minute pattern where it's done and dusted in a couple of hours or so.
 
 
August 6th, the next trading day the NKE 78 calls expiring August 16, 2024 were available for under 10c, this allows 9 trading days. Clearly you could have looked at an option expiring 4 days later on August 9, and made some modest gains, but for the pattern to fully unwind more time is needed.
 
Think of it like this, if this were a...
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Volatility diverged up Tuesday, QQQ puts were under 10c

Uncategorized Jul 25, 2024

Tuesday July 23, 2024. UVXY chart 15-minute had a double bottom and MACD divergence to the upside.  Signaling volatility was going to go up, and when that happens, the market goes down.

The QQQ 465 puts expiring July 24 were around 1 or 2 cents yesterday when the divergence occurred. You could have also gotten in this morning for under 10c. Prices rose in under 3 hours to 80c, by the end of the day $2.

This is just one example of the incredible opportunities that can arise. By joining us on Fed Day, you'll be equipped with the knowledge and insights needed to spot these patterns and make informed trading decisions. Don't miss out on the chance to achieve similar impressive gains.

 

Act now and be prepared for the next Fed Day! Sign up today and take the first step toward transforming your trading strategy.

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with Dale Wheatley 

July 31, 2024 1:30 - 4:00pm Eastern 

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UVXY June 21, 2024 a good divergence but no clear pattern on SPY

Uncategorized Jun 26, 2024

At the start of the trading day Friday, June 21, 2024. UVXY, the short volatility ETF reached a new high near 26.2. The 10-minute chart clearly shows the higher top with the MACD diverging down. We expect The SPY to show the opposite and anticipate an opportunity to find OTM calls on SPY under 10 c and expiring that same day.

 The 10-minute chart of SPY at that time did not display a clear pattern with MACD divergence to the upside. Our opportunity to make money without the pattern in place is limited. Looking at call options expiring June 21, the first options available under 10 c were the 548s. They crept up to 14c and fell away from there.

 With no clear pattern on the major market ETF, we returned to UVXY and examined the options. The chart below shows the UVXY 25 put around 7c and rose to 60c in 2 hours.

While this is a good move, the volume on these options is in the hundreds rather than the many thousands we usually like for the major ETFs, and trading fewer...

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SPY 534 Puts June 7, 2024

Uncategorized Jun 07, 2024
 

Are you paying attention? 1:45pm Eastern 10:45 Pacific There's the VXX clearly showing a divergence on the 5 minute bars. Went right over to SPY not as clear a pattern but a divergence down 534puts exp today 9c at 1:50pm EST over a $1 by 2.10pm EST

VXX diverging up on MACD June 7, 2024 5-minute chart

 

SPY small divergence down June 7, 2024 5-minute bars

SPy 534 puts expiring June 7, 2024, rose from 9c to $1

#MACD #optionstrading

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Message from Dale Wheatley - I would be delighted to have you join me

Uncategorized Apr 10, 2024
Hi Options Traders,
 
In a recent interview, I shared insights from my 40 years of trading experience, emphasizing the crucial role of discipline, focus, and above all, PATIENCE in achieving success with options trading using my methods.
 
 During the interview, we witnessed a remarkable pattern on the Qs that yielded a live profit of 500%. Despite not being the most exceptional pattern or market day, this success unequivocally validates the effectiveness of our approach at the Options Hunter. We even observed the 1-minute bars for a timely exit point based on MACD turn down.
 
Now, let me emphasize the urgency: from April 22nd to 26th, 20-24, I've reserved my entire schedule to work closely with those of you who are truly committed to seizing these types of trading opportunities during live market hours.
 
Our sessions in January 2024 were completely sold out, and I want to ensure you don't miss out this time. We intentionally keep these sessions...
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Meteoric Rise in QQQ and SPY Puts Today from under 10 c to over $8

Uncategorized Apr 04, 2024
 

So you buy a hundred contracts, the ten thousand shares you're controlling at seven cents So how much is that $700 right? So you have almost your thousand dollars there and only a hundred contracts. But just a couple of hours later, you see your $700  investment turned into, Oh let me see here What's a hundred times seven hundred That's $70,000. That would be $80,000+ in about two hours. I just have to ask you the question Is a little bit of patience worth it in a situation like this?

#optionstrading #optionstradingtips #optionseducation #optionstradingstrategies 

Live Trading Hours Zoom meet - full week coming up April 22 - 26, 2024. Limited seats left 

https://www.theoptionshunter.com/live-trading-hours-zoom-with-dale-april-2024

 

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Market Action During Live Interview with the Options Hunter

Uncategorized Mar 29, 2024
 
Check out what happened during this live interview with Dale during market hours on Thursday, March 28, 2024.
 
500%  gain LIVE during the last 90 minutes of trading 3-27-24 QQQ 446 calls. These options expire today, you've got an hour left It might move up it might move down Who cares? But the technical pattern says it's still strong And as long as the price is strong then I'm going to stay with it. #optionstrading #optiontradingstrategies #optionstradingtips
 
Want to join Dale during live market hours?
Time is ticking! To secure your spot for 5 days of Live Trading Hours with Dale April 22 - 26, 2024
 

Here's why you should act now

 Limited Inventory: Seats are filling up fast! We have a limited number of spots available for this exclusive live trading hours experience.

 Unbeatable Deal: This is an offer you don't want to miss. You'll get access to 5 full days of live trading sessions, where Dale Wheatley, The Options Hunter will guide you...

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QQQ setup March 8, 2024

Uncategorized Mar 14, 2024
Dale's Nightly Update on Friday, March 8, 2024, highlighted the QQQ divergence to the downside on the 10-minute chart at 10:20 Eastern (7.20 Pacific). The VXX 10-minute chart had started trending up from the Opening Bell which added confirmation to this divergence.
 
The QQQ Chart clearly shows the strength of the divergence below.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 The  QQQ 440 Puts that expired on March 8, 2024. Entry clearly around 3c, and exit before the QQQ MACD turned around. 5000% gain.
 
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