Trade the Fed:
October 28, 2026
Trade the Fed:
October 28, 2026
The Fed Just Hiked. The Data Just Softened. No Dot Plot to Settle It.
The Fed announces its decision on October 28 at 2:00 p.m. ET, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30. After September's hike to 3.75%โ4.00%, markets expect a hold โ but most officials still see another hike before year-end, and there's no new dot plot to settle it. The statement and Warsh's tone are the whole signal.
What the Market Expects From the Fed
Market pricing per CME FedWatch as of October 7, 2026.
- Hold now, hike in December. That's the base case โ the statement has to keep the door open.
- Very little guidance. Warsh has dropped forward guidance. Expect a short statement.
- Two wildcards. September CPI on October 14, and the midterms six days after the decision.
What the Fed Is Wrestling With
Core PCE at 3.0% is still well above target, while hiring has nearly stalled and unemployment is up to 4.2%.
September's hike was 12-0. July's hold was 9-3. Does a pause bring the hawks back out?
With no forward guidance, every statement change and unscripted answer moves the market.
The next dot plot arrives December 8โ9. This meeting sets the tone for it.
Three Ways This Could Go
Inflation stays front and center, December left wide open. Yields up, growth names under pressure.
The Fed nods to the jobs slowdown. December odds fade, risk assets rally.
A move to 4.00%โ4.25% that almost nobody is positioned for. Fast, violent repricing.
The hold is priced in. What the Fed signals about December isn't.
What We'll Cover
- Pre-meeting technical setups across the major indices
- Real-time read of the 2:00 PM statement, the vote, and Warsh's 2:30 PM press conference
- Systematic option strategies for Fed-driven volatility
- Live Q&A on your positioning
Frequently Asked Questions
If a hold is priced in, what is there to trade?
What the Fed signals about December. A hold that keeps a hike on the table trades very differently from one that backs away.
Do I need options experience?
Yes, the basics. This is rule-based positioning on a high-volatility event, not a beginner tutorial.
What if I can't attend live?
The value is in the real-time price action. Replay details, if offered, are confirmed at registration.
What do I need?
Just a device for Zoom. thinkorswim tools are referenced but not required.