Fed Watch July 29, 2026

The Federal Reserve releases its policy decision on July 29, 2026, at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. Markets are pricing roughly an 89% probability the Fed holds rates at 3.50%–3.75% for a fourth straight meeting.

Here's what's different this time: July is a non-SEP meeting — no updated Summary of Economic Projections, no new dot plot. There's nothing for the Fed to hide behind. Every word in the statement, every dissenting vote, and every ounce of tone in the press conference becomes the entire signal. That's where the volatility gets born.