Weekly Market Summary 12-12-25: 

This week’s trading once again proved that paying attention to volatility and short-term divergences is where the real money is made. While many sessions appeared choppy or unclear on the surface, traders who focused on early signals saw rapid, outsized gains — often finished by late morning. Expiration-sensitive options and clean volatility patterns produced repeated 20x, 30x, and 40x+ returns, sometimes in under two hours.

Key Highlights

• Volatility Set the Tone Every Day: When volatility showed upside divergences, markets sold off sharply. When volatility continued to fall, long trades worked — even when price action looked “wishy-washy.” Volatility led; price followed.

• Early Trades Were the Best Trades: The most productive setups consistently appeared between 9:40 and 11:30 ET. After that window, patterns lost clarity and option returns dropped off sharply.

• Expiration Days Magnified Returns: Short-dated options delivered explosive moves, with contracts running from just a few cents to multiple dollars in a matter of minutes — provided traders acted on the first clean signal.

• Indexes Outperformed Individual Stocks: Rather than hunting through single names, trading SPY, QQQ, and especially the Russell 2000 proved far more efficient and consistent.

Market Trends

Volatility: Clear divergences — sometimes subtle — consistently forecast market direction. Upside volatility patterns preceded selloffs, while sustained volatility drops supported market strength. The message was always there for those watching.

Indexes: SPY and QQQ delivered solid but uneven moves, while the Russell 2000 repeatedly produced the cleanest technical structures and the strongest option follow-through.

Best Trades of the Week

• SPY Expiration-Day Trades: Double-top and divergence setups produced moves from roughly $0.06 to $2.40+ — about 40x in just over an hour.

• Russell 2000 Options: The standout index of the week, with repeated trades delivering 10x–30x+ gains. The first move was always the one to take; later retests paid far less.

• QQQ Setups: Smaller but still powerful moves, including options running from a few cents to over a dollar — 12x–30x when volatility aligned.

• Special Situations: USO was the exception on an otherwise quiet Fed day, producing an intraday move of roughly 60x+ from a clean upside divergence.

Stock Observations

High-profile names such as Nvidia, Amazon, gold miners, and select tech stocks sold off sharply once divergences appeared — regardless of strong narratives or recent highs. A few individual names (like JPM) offered large gains, but only on lower timeframes and with extra scrutiny.

Trading Philosophy

• Volatility Comes First: Every meaningful move this week began with volatility — not price.

• Take the First Clean Signal: The initial move delivered the biggest return. Waiting for confirmation meant settling for less.

• Keep It Simple: Trading the indexes saved time, reduced noise, and consistently outperformed chasing individual stocks.

• Attention Is the Edge: These opportunities didn’t last all day. Traders who were focused during key windows were done early.

Looking Ahead

Expect more of the same: short-term, volatility-driven opportunities with the best returns appearing quickly and disappearing just as fast. Indexes — particularly the Russell 2000 — remain the most efficient vehicles. Stay patient, watch volatility, and act decisively when clarity appears.

P.S. Nothing extraordinary was required this week — just focus. As repeated all week: 20x, 30x, even 40x days come from trading the cleanest pattern and walking away.

SPY 10-minute chart with MACD divergence down reinforced by the 3rd peak and even lower MACD early Friday December 12, 2025

SPY 680 puts expiring December 12, 2025 were 6c at the open and rose in 90 minutes to @$2.30