Tuesday September 19, we saw a divergence to the downside on UVXY on the 10-minute chart, indicating Volatility was about to head down despite UVXY prices being at a new high for the day. What Does This Mean? The markets are likely headed higher..
The SPY 10-minute chart below shows us the MACD divergence up at the same time as the UVXY is doing the opposite. This provides us more momentum to the move thats coming.
That upside divergence on SPY gives us confidence that the markets are likely to move higher. In the chart below we Selected OTM calls on SPY expiring the same day 9-19-23, the 443 calls gave us an entry for @2c.
The MACD on the SPY 10-minute chart below turned down around 90 minutes into the trade. We could exit at around 23c for a nice 10 times your money.
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The SPY 10-minute chart below also gives us a possible reentry point...
Dale tweeted about the September 5, 2023 action on UVXY
"See, you cannot WAIT for the price to move! You’ve got to believe in the charts and what they say about the price! Does it belong higher or lower? Not, where it is!! What did the 30 min UVXY chart say yesterday late in the day?? Did the lower time frames confirm it???"
UVXY began moving up sharply the last hour of the trading day 09.05/23. We know this increase in volatility can lead to a fall in the markets. In that last hour of trading, SPY began moving down.
Selecting OTM Puts on SPY expiring on 09/06/23, the 443 Puts could be picked up for @2c late on 09/05/23 or early on 09/06/23. These Puts moved up to @30c exit within 3 hours for 10x your money.
Take July 19, 2023. On the 15-minute chart of the UVXY, the technical picture had been getting higher while the price was generally lower. Notice the early precipitous climb in UVXY as a consequence of the early trading on 7/19/23.
This picture suggests increased volatility and an opportunity for us to look at puts on the major market ETFs during the morning of 7/19/23. Looking at the QQQ during that morning period, the pattern is not perfect but there is a definite divergence in place on the MACD.
Nimble traders buying the QQQ 383 calls expiring that day, 7/19, could be had for around 7c. Exit within 60 - 75 minutes for around 30c. for 4 times your money. Not our best pattern ever but still not bad.
You can see later that same day that the MACD fell in line with the move down on the QQQ and our puts gained in value. Once we exited as technicals turned around, you can clearly see MACD failed to break the Signal Line and turned back down at the end...
The bear market on the NASDAQ is still in place, the recent rally has been all tech and mostly 8 stocks.
The Dow barely hit bear territory and is only 10% from it's previous high.
Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 is performing much worse.
Earnings are all over the map, and geopolitical events are skewing everything, and driving spurts of volatility.
YES. It's not the events themselves we care about. We want the volatility these events bring to us, and to use our Options Hunter strategy to leverage that volatility.
Immersive, interactive, and intense, these sessions have been oversubscribed in January and April. Seats have suddenly started to fill up for the July event. We don't want you to miss out.
Check out this powerful hourly chart on the UVXY, the volatility ETF. A powerful divergence to the downside, indicating Volatility was about to head down, and of course, the markets were going to head up.
This event occurred after 4 hours of trading Wednesday, March 15, 2023. The same pattern was clear on the 2 hourly charts and gave us confidence that the trade could last longer than if this had been on a short time frame like 15 minutes.
As expected the SPY was showing the opposite of UVXY, indicating a potential move to the upside 4 hours into the trading day.
The SPY 392 Calls expiring Wednesday, March 15th, despite only a few hours until expiration, could have been had for @5c and rose to a high of 50c within 45 minutes.
The strength of the UVXY hourly and 2 hourly divergence drove the SPY higher into the next trading day, March 16th. The SPY call options expiring the 16th, for example, the 395 calls could have been had for 5c and rose to...
Look at that second hour of trading on Thursday, a powerful divergence to the upside on UVXY on the hourly chart, indicating Volatility was about to head up, and of course, the markets were going to head down.
By late Friday the UVXY had risen over 50%
That powerful upside divergence on UVXY gives us confidence that the markets like SPY are likely to move lower. Here you can see SPY moved down from the 400 level to 386 rapidly over the 2 days.
The SPY 388 Puts expiring on Friday March 10th were one of many OTM options available that Thursday morning. On Thursday the 8c option rose to around $2. On Friday as high as $3.95.
April 5 and 6, 2023
Focus on SPY and QQQ options
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Before Mid-November 2022, we could only trade QQQ and...
On February 7th we watched the SPY move up strongly to a high of 415 around 9.30 am PST (12.30 eastern) before falling back rapidly to 408. During this period the MACD diverged to the upside. The MACD indicated prices should be nearer 412. As we have options expiring today on SPY we can look for an out-of-the-money option under 10c a contract.
With only 3 hours remaining in the trading day, this trade will be very short-term. The nearest out-of-the-money option expiring February 7, 2023, and with a price under 10c was the 412 call with an entry around 4c.
Entering the trade at 11.10 am PST, 90 minutes later the option was trading above $4
How do we do this?
The Options Hunter strategy focuses on divergencies between the MACD and the price movements of the underlying ticker. We don't include other indicators such as RSI, Stochastics, or Bollinger bands as our approach is kept simple, straightforward, and repeatable.
The main difference between weekly and...
On February 2, 2023, the 15-minute chart of SPY was headed to a new high of around 418 at 11:00 am PST. the MACD was diverging down strongly indicating prices should be nearer 412. As we have options expiring today on SPY we can look for an out-of-the-money option under 10c a contract.
With only 2 1/2 hours remaining in the trading day, this trade will be very short-term. The nearest out-of-the-money option expiring February 2, 2023, and with a price under 10c was the 410 put with an entry around 3c.
Entering the trade at 11.10 am PST, we rode this up to around 18c before exiting after 40 minutes for 6x your money.
How do we do this?
The Options Hunter strategy focuses on divergencies between the MACD and the price movements of the underlying ticker. We don't include other indicators such as RSI, Stochastics, or Bollinger bands as our approach is kept simple, straightforward, and repeatable.
The main difference between weekly and monthly options is their...